{"id":5724,"date":"2021-05-29T13:13:34","date_gmt":"2021-05-29T13:13:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/43.153.210.228\/\/?p=5724"},"modified":"2021-05-29T13:13:34","modified_gmt":"2021-05-29T13:13:34","slug":"%e8%be%be%e5%88%a9%e6%ac%a7%ef%bc%9a%e6%88%91%e6%8c%81%e6%9c%89%e4%b8%80%e4%ba%9b%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e9%87%8d%e5%9b%9e1971%e5%b9%b4%ef%bc%8c%e7%8e%b0%e9%87%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/43.153.210.228\/?p=5724","title":{"rendered":"\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\uff1a\u6211\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u91cd\u56de1971\u5e74\uff0c\u73b0\u91d1\u5c31\u662f\u5783\u573e"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/h3>\n

CECBC<\/a> \u5c0f\u767d 2021-05-26 22:06:38 \u53d1\u5e03\u5728 <\/i>\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u793e\u533a<\/a> <\/p>\n

<\/i> 5098 <\/i> 0 <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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5\u670824\u65e5\uff0c\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u6559\u7236\u201d\u7684\u6865\u6c34\u8054\u5408\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Bridgewater Associates\uff09\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u745e-\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\uff08Ray Dalio\uff09\u5bf9\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u6df1\u8868\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u4ece\u4e00\u5ea6\u6000\u7591\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u6d89\u8db3\u8fd9\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u3002 <\/p>\n

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\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u6216\u5b66\u672f\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u8bf4\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u3002\u201d<\/b> <\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u53d1\u8868\u8fd9\u756a\u8a00\u8bba\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u201c\u95e8\u5f92\u201d\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\uff08Stanley Druckenmiler\uff09\u4e5f\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u5176\u6301\u6709\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u5ffd\u89c6\u6216\u56de\u907f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u8bd5\u63a2\u6027\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5219\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u671f\u95f4\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u60f3\u8981\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e00\u4e2a\u907f\u98ce\u6e2f\u6765\u89c4\u907f\u901a\u80c0\u3002 <\/p>\n

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01<\/b> <\/p>\n

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\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u524d\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u57281944\u5e74\u300a\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u534f\u8bae\u300b\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c47\u7387\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u6302\u94a9\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u5143\u53c8\u4ee5\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e3a\u540e\u76fe\u3002\u4f46\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u798f\u5229\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u65f6\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8017\u5c3d\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u7684\u5927\u7ea620\u5428\u51cf\u5c11\u52301970\u5e74\u7684\u4e0d\u523010\u5428\u3002\u65f6\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\uff08Richard Nixon\uff09\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u96be\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u57281971\u5e74\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8131\u79bb\u4e86\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5236\u3002\u4ece\u90a3\u65f6\u8d77\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u6cd5\u5b9a\u201d\u8d27\u5e01\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e1971\u5e74\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u4f60\u770b\u7740\u653f\u5e9c\u9884\u7b97\u548c\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201c\u9700\u8981\u501f\u94b1\uff1f\u90a3\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u5f97\u5370\u94b1\u3002\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u94b1\uff1f\u90a3\u5c31\u5f97\u52a0\u7a0e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u8bb2\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52a8\u6001\u4e2d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\u2026\u2026\u6211\u75db\u82e6\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u57281971\u5e74\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\uff08\u800c\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u5219\uff09\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ec4\u91d1\u3001\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u90fd\u5728\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5904\u7684\u5468\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u201d\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u8bf4\u9053\u3002 <\/p>\n

02<\/b> <\/p>\n

\u901a\u80c0\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b<\/b> <\/p>\n

\u56f4\u7ed5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u53d9\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d77\u5230\u5bf9\u51b2\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u5c06\u53ef\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u8d22\u653f\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7ee7\u7eed\u52aa\u529b\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u524d\u666f\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u622a\u81f34\u6708\u4efd\u768412\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe4.2%\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a82%\u7684\u957f\u671f\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u57282020\u5e744\u6708\u4efd\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u90fd\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u505c\u6ede\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u79f0\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4f9b\u6c42\u5173\u7cfb\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4ea7\u80fd\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5219\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ce8\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u901a\u80c0\u7c7b\u578b\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u3002\u201d\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u8bf4\u9053\u3002\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62a2\u8d2d\u503a\u5238\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8dcc\u81f3\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e2a\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u91d1\u5c31\u662f\u5783\u573e\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u53d8\u6210\u8d1f\u503c\u3002\u201d <\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u8fbe\u5229\u6b27\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u4f1a\u5360\u636e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5229\u597d\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7b49\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u201c\u5c31\u50cf\u503a\u5238\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u9053\u3002\u201c\u800c\u968f\u7740\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8d2d\u4e70\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9ebb\u70e6\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u90fd\u4f1a\u6563\u67b6\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u9053\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5370\u949e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a\u4ecd\u5728\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u5374\u53d8\u6210\u8d1f\u503c\u2014\u2014\u5c31\u50cf\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u6837\u3002 <\/p>\n

03<\/b> <\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u7acb\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01<\/b> <\/p>\n

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